The United States has the earliest, walking winter

This Winter Covid wave in the United States has been the most exquisite so far, in a welcome relief.

According to sewage data aggregated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, not only smaller blacksmith circulated than in previous years, but in the sewage there was less virus than in all the summer waves that the program followed.

The Covid hospitalization indicator remained about half of what was last year, as well as deaths. At the end of December, in the area 600 people died every week. Last winter at that time was around 2000. (During a rapid growth at the end of 2021, weekly deaths were 10,000).

Although sewage levels cannot tell us how many individual cases of Covid, the latest data reflect a significant number of five -year virus attacks.

“This is by far the most right winter,” said Michael Mina, an epidemiologist and scientific director EMED. “In terms of hospitalization in terms of spreading.”

Modern low

One of the possible reasons why the population still has some resistance from a huge, later than summer growth, said Peter Chin-Hong, specialist in infectious diseases at the University of California in San Francisco. This year’s vaccine was also a good fit to the circulating variant and More people got it According to CDC data this year.

Epidemiologists say that the virus did not acquire types of mutations after a summer wave that would allow much faster transmission or a larger disease.

This is not unexpected a few years after the modern virus, said Aubree Gordon, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan.

“You are two or three years senior, which is really bad,” she said. “Usually the first year is the worst – when it comes to the incidence indicators and severity – and then it will solve.”

Epidemiologists do not yet know what the “basic” Covid wave will look like, and there is no guarantee that every winter will be milder than the last one. Mina said, however, that the chances of a modern variant, which can cause significant damage, are now much lower.

“Should we expect that the variants will start to fall when it comes to how quickly they grow and how aggressively?” He said. “A miniature answer is like this. The virus grew up. “

American immune systems have become very familiar with the virus, you told Mina through vaccination and earlier infections, and on average they are more able to recognize and attack. This means that we can have a lower viral load when we get infirmed, say or remove the virus, less patient and infecting fewer people. Less infection also gives the virus less mutation possibilities.

Still other ways of getting infirmed

To say, if it seems that almost everyone you know, got infirmed this winter (or still is), you are not mistaken: it was another hard season for other respiratory viruses.

At the peak of the weekly flu hospitalization indicator, this year exceeded the high indicator of last winter; Hospitalizations for a respiratory synthetic virus (RSV) have Similarly reflected last year. (Norovirus, although not breath, is also high this year.

According to CDC estimates, flu and covid had more or less the same numbers of fatalities-8,000 to 9,000 people in mid-January. Covid deaths from the beginning of last summer amounted to about 25,000 (although getting one virus Can theoretically reduce the risk of obtaining another person For a miniature time, it is still very possible that many viruses can drink rapidly at the same time.

Comparison with flu is useful because, like the Covid flu, it will remain. As in the case of flu, there will be better and worse seasons. Professor Gordon said that it may turn out that this winter was on the low side of our modern base line.

But unlike flu, there will probably be more waves except winter. While Covid’s winter tide was relatively coherent – reaching the peak at the beginning of January each year – other waves have not yet fell into a clear pattern. A bland growth during winter holidays can mean worse this year, maybe even later this winter. And for people exposed to a higher risk, which will continue to translate into a solemn illness and death, as well as modern cases of long Covid.

“There may be good times in some bad times,” said Dr. Chin-Hong. “So will we get something later? We must have humility. “

But for now there are many relief for Americans, as well as experts who have been following the virus for five long years. “If I had never seen a crazy variant for the rest of my life,” he said, “I would be very excited.”