How marketing influences hesitant voters in the face of the upcoming US elections

Americans will soon choose the next president, after the race for the White House essentially bound. From a marketing standpoint, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris each have 45% market share. The remaining 10 percent these are undecided voters and people reluctant to vote.

My political marketing class at the University of Windsor uses this marketing lens to understand the variables that will influence the outcome on November 5. My recent trip to the battleground state of Pennsylvania gave me insight into the power of the Democratic and Republican brands.

I see these parties as established brands. Both parties are steadfast to the brand. However, the current success of these brands is influenced by the campaign.

As for the Democratic Party, voters obviously don’t asked to buy itbut they were being asked to buy into a party strengthened or weakened by Harris, its current presidential candidate. The same can be said about Trump’s Republican Party.

From a marketing perspective, we can monitor promotional activities spanning customary media, social media, debates, interviews and rallies, and we also receive updates on the party’s fundraising activities – essentially the promotional budget. We will see the results of these efforts on November 5.

Predicting results

This is the third time I have taught a political marketing course based on the US presidential election. Classes focus on understanding major party brands and the influence of candidates, debates, media coverage and Political Action Committees. Students predict election results the day before the election.

The president is not decided by a nationwide popular vote. It is an inter-state contest in which each state is allocated votes in the ballot Electoral College. The Electoral College has 538 votes, so 270 are needed to win.

Most states are predictable. California will undoubtedly vote Democrat (54 votes); Texas will most likely vote Republican again (40 votes). The elections therefore come down to seven swing states: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

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Read more: North Carolina isn’t really a red or blue state — and that makes political predictions much more complex

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Democrats, with 226 unthreatening Electoral College votes, do 20 possible paths to 270 — and 19 of them require a win in Pennsylvania. Republicans, with 219 unthreatening Electoral College votes, have 21 possible paths to 270 – 19 also require a Pennsylvania win. That’s why I decided to drive through Pennsylvania and talk to voters.

Understanding Pennsylvania

I was in Pennsylvania the week of September 30-October 4, right after Hurricane Helene hit the Southeast when the vice presidential debate took place in Novel York, when the dockers went on strike and as Hurricane Milton he was going to Florida.

First I went to Erie, a belligerent county with a long history of the same voting pattern as the entire state of Pennsylvania, so it was a strong predictor of statewide outcomes. I went to the outskirts of Pittsburgh and then to State College districthome of Penn State University. Every now and then I left the interstate to drive through other towns, see signs, eat lunch, and talk.

Each time my introduction was uncomplicated:

“I am a marketing professor from Canada and I teach classes on the US presidential election. Could you explain to me how you think Pennsylvania will vote? I don’t need to know how you vote.”

The university students I spoke to were juniors and seniors. Outside of students, the people I spoke to could be considered working class, a mix of blue-collar and white-collar workers. Non-students reached retirement age from the age of 35. Everyone I spoke to said they voted in the 2022 election mid-term elections and I was going to vote this year.

At the Erie car show, the voters I spoke to were evenly divided between men over 50 who owned vintage cars and university students who owned newer vehicles. I’ve heard from both groups that Pennsylvania is divided, but the sentiments vary between the parties.

Both argued that people who vote for Democrats are steadfast to or reject the Trump brand. Both age groups, including Democratic voters, saw that Trump supporters were primarily focused solely on him as the current Republican brand offering.

Economic concerns

Most said the biggest issue that will have the greatest impact on undecided voters is the economy, closely followed by the narrower economic issue of inflation.

One Democrat had a uncomplicated message that was representative. When asked who would take Erie County, he replied, “Democrats.” When asked why they would win, he replied: “I just hope.”

Let’s compare this to visiting a restaurant in Erie. One woman explained that she supported Harris because of reproductive rights. Everyone else supported Trump because of his economic policies, the southern border, international wars, and crime.

One of the restaurant’s guests attended a recent Trump rally in Erie. He described it as a rock concert and talked about being excited and hearing Trump say the exact same words he always did. “It was your favorite rock band playing their hits,” he said.

I left Erie with the knowledge that Democrats are either brand steadfast or voting to avoid Trump. Republicans, however, never mentioned past voting or leadership. They were just Trump supporters.

Stage in Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh was a failure. I picked the wrong city outside of Pittsburgh. After talking to dozens of voters in Erie, I found only two people in Smithton to talk to.

State College was different. My hotel was close to Penn State University, and there was a restaurant/sports bar on site.

I entered at 4 p.m. The bartender asked why I was in town. A nearby patron said he would answer questions. Then another person volunteered. I left seven hours later. People were asking to be next.

I talked to people from all political circles. Of the more than 40 people I spoke to, one couple in particular illustrates the mood in the state. She is a Republican. He is a democrat. He explained: “There’s too much going on – inflation, hurricanes, the longshoremen’s strike, steel and fracking, illegal immigration. Too many.”

He shrugged, discouraged. She smiled, looking forward to election day.

Conclusions from conversations with voters

If the election were today, based on my conversations with voters, I believe Republicans would win Pennsylvania. However, this could change if there is a change in one of the key themes: perhaps powerful or unexpected positive economic news, or if a recent issue or story emerges that has not yet had an impact on the race.

The tour provided insight into voter decision-making. The importance of brand loyalty and enthusiasm was emphasized. A significant portion of voters indicated that they would like the two parties to have different leaders. This may have an impact on voter turnout.

It also highlighted a key difference between customary consumer decision-making and voter decision-making. If I prefer Walmart’s offerings to Amazon’s on Black Friday, I am unaffected by my neighbor’s purchasing decision.

In politics, however, it is how the votes of my neighbors will affect my life over the next four years.